Grain Comments: 03-24-2023

Good morning:

Grain action is at least mixed this morning, but soybeans continue to bear the brunt of the one-way money flow out of the complex, as beans and meal still theoretically have a net fund long to liquidate. The key new-crop SX is working on an historic 14th straight losing session today…

Heavy rains fell in the southern and eastern belt over the past 24 hours and action remains there this morning, expected heavy again today in the south-eastern Midwest; chances stay heaviest in the SE belt and lighter in the NW, though KS and surroundings will see scattered coverage through the weekend as well. 6-to-10-day forecasts are still quite wet with 11-15 day maps a bit drier today, while temperatures hold safely below normal up into early April.

Rains hold in northern Argentina and move into central areas into the 6-to-10-day period for what it’s worth; Brazil again saw rains from north to south over the past 24 hours, with action favoring the west going forward and leaving some dryness concerns in the northeastern safrinha corn areas.

As the debate over US acres heats up, we are seeing more thoughts on what may impact actual plantings other than simple futures values and price ratios. A main one of these is the weather conditions across the Corn Belt and how heavy snowpack may limit early seeding which tends to elevate corn acres. It is no secret that US farmers can seed a large volume of acres in a very short amount of time, however, which means plantings will need to be delayed for a considerable period before the market reacts. It is also interesting to note that the region of the United States with the most snow cover at this time is the Upper Plains, mainly the Dakotas. This is also the region of the United States that is suffering from the most severe drought conditions. If snow melt is slow this year it would actually be a great benefit for soils ahead of the planting season. A rapid melt will elevate chances of widespread flooding. The record spring insurance value on corn will likely keep producers focused on getting the crop seeded as well. We may get a better indication of US plantings at the end of next week when the Planting Intentions report is released.

Have a great day!