Grain Comments: 04-06-2023

Good morning:

Corn and soybeans continue to ratchet lower into the end of a holiday-shortened week; fieldwork/planting reports should be firing up soon.

Heavy rains fell over the past 24 hours in the southern and eastern belt, with a drier pattern settling in over the next week, before rains move back in from the NW late next week for a resumption of the overall wetter pattern into the 11-15 day. Temperatures warm into the 6-10 day and hold through the middle of April.

We are likely going to see elevated positioning in today’s session. The main reason for this is that markets will be closed tomorrow in observance of Good Friday. We are also getting closer to the April WASDE report which will be released next Tuesday, the 11th. While the April release tends to have little impact on the market, this year will likely see a larger influence given the elevated amount of uncertainty in the market. Once again trade will be heavily focused on today’s export sales totals. Corn demand has been solid in recent weeks due to Chinese demand, but this appears to have cooled. This is really not that surprising as China’s cumulative bookings are at the level that was forecast for the country. We are also starting to see more corn offers out of South America at a discount to the US, including corn from Argentina. Soybean sales have retreated in recent weeks which is not a surprise but have still been at or above the volume needed to meet yearly expectations. As long as we continue to hold this elevated sales pace, we stand a good chance of lower ending stocks in future balance sheets. Wheat sales have been so-so in recent weeks but meeting the needed volume.

Have a great day!