Grain Comments: 04-11-2023

Good morning:

The grains are mixed this morning with soybeans and meal holding up the complex, and wheat falling from overnight highs after a Crop Progress boost early on. Weather will boost planting prospects in a big way across the Midwest this week, but winter wheat will continue to suffer.

National corn planting progress came in at 3% complete yesterday afternoon, up from 2% last week, last year, and on average. Spring wheat plantings were initially reported at 1% complete, down from 6% last year and 4% on average. Winter wheat heading rose just a point to 7%, still ahead of 5% LY and 4% on average, with ratings of the crop down a point this week to 27% good/ excellent, below 32% last year and the 47% 5YA figure.

This week is warm and dry for the Plains and Midwest before rains arrive Thurs through Saturday, with coverage thin for the former and widespread for the latter. Extended maps are becoming more mixed both temp and precipitation wise.

India’s state weather office said they expect “normal” monsoon rains in 2023, the fifth straight year of roughly average precipitation, aiding crop production.

The main focus of today’s session will be the release of the monthly WASDE report. For the most part trade expecting relatively similar numbers on the domestic side from what was released in March. Ethanol demand on corn has been trailing the volume needed to reach yearly expectations but it is unlikely we will see a change until later in the marketing year. The same is true on soybean crush where usage is under expectations. Exports have been trailing off as well and remain under the projected volume for the year for all three major crops. As it has been, more changes are expected to be seen in the global numbers, mainly the South American balance sheets. Ever since the USDA published the March data, we have seen private analysts predict smaller crops in Argentina. Some of these are 4-5 million metric tons (mmt) under the USDA projections. The opposite has been taking place in Brazil. Several analysts in Brazil have raised their crop estimates by significant amounts. A few soybean crop projections are 6 mmt over the last USDA estimate. Corn production in Brazil is thought to be upwards of 4 mmt larger than the USDA figure. Analysts are also raising their Brazilian export forecast on soybeans to a record 96 mmt, nearly 19 mmt more than the country exported last year.

Have a great day!